Conflict Dynamics in NES

2020-01-07
Writer: Idris Khalo:
Politics is the art of studying the possible; according to theoretical formulas and principles, where the existing facts cannot be surpassed, therefore we must obtain what we can obtain and lose what can be lost in the political game. Moreover, everything is subject to transformation and change, since there are no constants or ends in politics. Likewise, the political dictionary lacks values and virtues, as a system, to control the behavior of politicians, who manage the interests of their peoples and countries.
This preliminary introduction to politics and interests of states and entities, leads us to the situation problems in NES after the decision of the United States of America to withdraw, which was like a stab in the back of the Kurdish ally. After two years and more of funding and military supplies, where the Kurdish forces were launched, under the umbrella of SDF to fight ISIS. To the extent that Kurds were accused of being spies for Americans, hopefully that this would lead to political gains inside Syria. The surprising decision of, Trump, the United States President, to withdraw from NES gave the green light for Turks to cross the borders, accompanied by Islamic extremist loyalist factions in a military campaign, which put the region and the Kurdish ally in a difficult situation. As they become surrounded by the Turks from the north and terrorist sleeper cells in the south, as well as, regime endeavors by imposing its control on the areas east of the Euphrates.
However, the conflict dynamics analysis in NES indicates the complexities of the Syrian scene. Thus, the start of another chapter of the Syrian murder; through the overlapping of regional and international actors complicating the crisis, in the face of the political solutions fragility, despite the constitution-drafting process under the United Nations auspices.
The American decision to withdraw and its understanding with the Turkish party, which guaranteed Turkey to occupy other areas of the Syrian geography and establish a new situation in the north, is the essence of eliminating Kurdish capabilities, both civilly and militarily and the ones developed in the war conditions. In addition to the transfer of its conflict with Kurds to the Syrian interior, hindering the Self-Administration experiment while striving to eliminate any Kurdish entity that may arise in the future. This would be achieved through what is on the ground as a fact or through amending the constitution and ensuring the legitimate national rights of the Kurdish people in Syria. Likewise, following the steps of escalation and filling the gap in NES and the relentless pursuit of all parties.
Russia hastened to play an active role in Syria and prevented Bashar al-Assad regime from falling by an early intervention in the Syrian war since 2015, in a struggle to serve its interests. In addition to its ability to manage intersections with influential actors in the Syrian scene. As it hastened by a step, considered as a sign of an American retreat in favor of Russia, which led to the conclusion of that agreement “Sochi” on October 22 with a tacit approval from the United States to share control in NES and the entire border strip between Turkey and Russia.
We can notice that Russia has benefited from the confusion in the policies of the American administration towards Syria, after Russia facilitated the process of withdrawing the Kurdish units 30 km from the border and looking into the new points in the Syrian scene. However, the most essential question is; Will Russia with its limited economic capabilities, be able to continue and play an alternative guide with its military assets? This will be answered only through the Syrian crisis course.
On the other hand, the European Union’s position on the Syrian crisis and the ongoing conflict remained confined to the strategy of imposing economic sanctions on the Syrian regime and issuing data on violence and humanitarian relief. Also, despite the participation of Europeans in the international coalition against ISIS, this participation remained symbolic and represented in a limited number of French and British forces in the northeast of the Euphrates. Despite the attempts of the French President Emmanuel Macron to find an effective European role in the Middle East and the ongoing conflict in Syria in particular, however, these efforts are ineffective and lack influence in the Syrian crisis.
Many questions the fate of Kurds and the Self-Administration regarding options and possible alternatives, given the recent complexity and overlap of the emerging scene in NES after the Turkish invasion.
The coalition has partly abandoned Kurds, leaving the fate of three million Kurds and others like the rest of the components, at risk. Subsequently, the dynamics of the conflict and alliances have shifted to limiting Kurds options to either make more painful concessions to the Syrian regime or with the aim of resorting to the resistance of Turkey option. Nevertheless, both possibilities are more terrible after changing the rules of the military and political game; as a result of secret understandings between the major actors in the Syrian conflict.